Monday, March 15, 2010

Who Will Be First?

It didn't take long. Far less time than even I could imagine. With the wonderful images of Costa Rica still strong, it took but a few minutes of listening to the radio on the drive home from the airport to bring me back to the realities of our economy.

Impending layoffs at Cisco. Severe revenue shortfalls in the City & County of San Francisco, forcing the mayor to eliminate 15,000 full-time jobs and hire most of those people back as part-time employees. Unemployment climbing. Many electing simply to walk away from homes that have lost more than 50% of their value nearly overnight.

That was the news at midnight last Sunday. (Note to self: Next time try music.)

Which of course raises two questions:

1. Is there any possibility of the San Francisco Giants moving to Costa Rica, making my decision to move there that much easier? And,

2. When will this end?

Given that the first is somewhat unlikely -- even though the Giants are 3rd on the All-time Futility List, having not won a world championship in 56 years (behind only the Cleveland Indians and, yes, the Chicago Cubbies) -- let's consider the second.

This horrific economic climate will end when companies again begin to hire.

It's not as if many companies don't have the financial where with all to begin hiring now. (Sorry for the double negative. Speaking Spanish for three weeks will do that. Also sorry for the use of 'where with all'.) Indeed, many companies are awash in cash. Billions of dollars, all things considered. Even so, the vast majority of companies are reluctant to add to their overhead.

Why, you ask?

It's rather simple, actually. For any public company, stock price is king. 'King' may be an under-representation. 'Supreme Poo-bah, All-powerful Ruler of The Universe and Holiest of Holy Grails' is likely more accurate. Stock price up is a good thing; stock price down is bad. Why? Because, class, those who have invested in the company -- the actual owners -- want to make a pile of money from their investment. And they want to make that pile of money now. And again next week. And again the week after next. And on and on and on.

No need to criticize. Anyone who buys a piece of a company, no matter how large or small that piece is, expects the proverbial 'return on my investment'.

So, most public companies are in the unenviable position of needing to grow their top and bottom lines each and every quarter. And if income isn't growing (the top line), then the way to 'grow' profit (the bottom line) is by cutting costs. And the #1 cost in nearly every company on Earth? Yes! People.

The circle is a vicious one:
  • Sales slow
  • Some analyst writes a report saying that your company may have its investments tied up in companies that may not be rock-solid (sound familiar AFLAC?)
  • Stock price drops precipitously
  • Cost-cutting needed
  • Tons of employees laid off
  • Profits improve
  • Same analyst writes another report saying that your company is taking 'aggressive and appropriate action to address its significant issues'
  • Stock price improves
And everyone smiles. Everyone except the millions who are out of work. Everyone except those who have lost their homes. Everyone except those who have lost much of their dignity as their joblessness sees no end in sight. Everyone except those who, shockingly enough, need money to pay their monthly bills.

The overall economy still sucks because fewer people have money to spend and those fewer people aren't spending as much as before. They're buying less clothing, fewer cars, fewer homes, fewer expensive bottles of wine, less jewelry, traveling less and going out less often. There are simply too few people spending money.

Let's take a brief time out and ask yet another set of questions: Wall St. analysts, whoever they may be, what of them? Who are they? Do they do anything? Why does anyone listen to them? (Reminding me of the wonderful scene in Bull Durham when Kevin Costner asks Susan Sarandon, "Don't you think you're a little over-dressed for the Caroline League? Who are you? Do you have a job?")

These analysts have the power to undermine even the most conservative, solid corporations with only their opinion -- opinions which may be wrong. These analysts, many of whom have never produced, marketed or sold anything, are compensated obscenely because their 'reports' produced millions, if not billions, of dollars of income for those who do nothing but make money when a company succeeds or fails.

And when the analysts are wrong, and layoffs result, is there ever an apology? An 'Oops, I messed up. So sorry!' No, of course not. So, just a thought, given the harm analysts often do: How about we start our economic turn-around by tarring and feathering analysts and driving them screaming from the country? I hear that Antarctica has room.

Thanks, I needed that.

Time in. Back to our vicious circle.

So, if the economy needs more people to spend money -- which it does -- and many companies are awash in cash as a result of the cost savings they realized following their layoffs, I ask this:

Where are the companies with the courage to put an end to this? Which company will be the first to say 'Enough is enough!' and begin to hire? Which firm will use its sea of cash to stop the unemployment bleeding, turn the tide and begin to employ the many talented, experienced, hard-working people who are out of work largely because their company needed to 'enhance profitability'?

Because enough is enough. Unemployment is bad for everyone. And because we're better than this. Indeed, it's time to put America back to work. Now.

Do I hear an 'Amen'?

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